Corporate Banner
Satellite Banner
Environmental Analysis
Scientific Community
 
Become a Member | Sign in
Home>News>This Article
  News
Return

Global Warming Continues; Most Extreme Projections ‘Less Likely’

Published: Monday, May 20, 2013
Last Updated: Monday, May 20, 2013
Bookmark and Share
Observations of the climate system’s response to rising greenhouse gas levels are consistent with conventional estimates of the long-term ‘climate sensitivity’, despite a “warming pause” over the past decade.

However, the most extreme rates of warming simulated by the current generation of climate models over 50- to 100-year timescales are looking less likely, according to the paper published online by Nature Geoscience.

Their findings, resulting from a broad international collaboration of scientists, are significant because they use the most up-to-date information on temperatures, energy flows and energy accumulation in the climate system available to the next Scientific Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due to be finalised in September.

Dr Alexander Otto, from the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, said: ‘Recent observations suggest the expected rate of warming in response to rising greenhouse gas levels, or ‘Transient Climate Response,’ is likely to lie within the range of current climate models, but not at the high end of this range.

‘The eventual long-term warming after stabilization remains rather uncertain, but for most policy decisions, the transient response over the next 50-100 years is what matters.’

Professor Reto Knutti of ETH Zurich said: ‘Clearly, new data helping to rule out more extreme scenarios for near-term rates of warming is welcome news, but even if the response is at the low end of the current range of uncertainty, we are still looking at warming well over the two degree goal that countries have agreed upon if current emission trends continue.’

Professor Jochem Marotzke of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg said: ‘It is important not to over-interpret a single decade, given what we know, and don’t know, about natural climate variability. Over the past decade, the world as a whole has continued to warm, but the warming is mostly in the subsurface oceans rather than at the surface.’

Professor Piers Forster of the University of Leeds said: ‘We know much more than we did only a few years ago how different factors, like global aerosol emissions, affect the global energy budget, and this new study draws out the implications.’


Further Information
Access to this exclusive content is for Technology Networks Premium members only.

Join Technology Networks Premium for free access to:

  • Exclusive articles
  • Presentations from international conferences
  • Over 2,500+ scientific posters on ePosters
  • More than 3,800+ scientific videos on LabTube
  • 35 community eNewsletters


Sign In



Forgotten your details? Click Here
If you are not a member you can join here

*Please note: By logging into TechnologyNetworks.com you agree to accept the use of cookies. To find out more about the cookies we use and how to delete them, see our privacy policy.


Scientific News
Low-level Arsenic Exposure Before Birth Associated with Early Puberty in Female Mice
Study examine whether low-dose arsenic exposure could have similar health outcomes in humans.
Intensity of Desert Storms May Affect Ocean Phytoplankton
MIT study finds phytoplankton are extremely sensitive to changing levels of desert dust.
Determination of Phosphate in Soil Extracts in the Field: A Green Chemistry Enzymatic Method
New method for phosphate determination which can be carried out in the field to obtain results on the spot.
Open-Source Photometric System for Enzymatic Nitrate Quantification
New method proposed for developing a cheaper, more accessible open-source water testing platform capable of performing Nitrate Reductase Nitrate-Nitrogen Analysis.
Toxic Algae is a Threat to Our Water
A report concludes that blooms of toxic cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae, are a poorly monitored and underappreciated risk to recreational and drinking water quality in the U.S., and may increasingly pose a global health threat.
Significant Part of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Comes From River and Sea Organisms
Running streams are key sources of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, but why is it so?
Better Estimates of Worldwide Mercury Pollution
New findings show Asia produces twice as much mercury emissions as previously thought.
Real-Time Data for Cancer Therapy
Biochemical sensor implanted at initial biopsy could allow doctors to better monitor and adjust cancer treatments.
New Biosensors for Managing Microbial ‘Workers’
Researchers at Harvard’s Wyss Institute have unveiled new biosensors that enable scientists to more effectively control and 'communicate with' engineered bacteria.
Playing 'Tag' with Pollution lets Scientists See Who's It
Using a climate model that can tag sources of soot from different global regions and can track where it lands on the Tibetan Plateau, researchers have determined which areas around the plateau contribute the most soot — and where.
Scroll Up
Scroll Down
SELECTBIO

Skyscraper Banner
Go to LabTube
Go to eposters
 
Access to the latest scientific news
Exclusive articles
Upload and share your posters on ePosters
Latest presentations and webinars
View a library of 1,800+ scientific and medical posters
2,500+ scientific and medical posters
A library of 2,500+ scientific videos on LabTube
3,800+ scientific videos
Close
Premium CrownJOIN TECHNOLOGY NETWORKS PREMIUM FREE!