Air Pollution and Extreme Heat May Cause 30 Million Deaths Annually by 2090
Air pollution and extreme temperatures could cause 30 million deaths annually by 2090.
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An international study led by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry has projected alarming increases in deaths caused by air pollution and extreme temperatures by 2090. Using advanced simulations, the research indicates that annual mortality rates tied to these factors could reach 30 million under the most likely scenario.
Key trends identified include a 5-fold increase in deaths linked to air pollution, rising from approximately 4.1 million in 2000 to an estimated 19.5 million by the century’s end. Mortality due to extreme temperatures is projected to grow even more dramatically, from 1.6 million deaths annually in 2000 to around 10.8 million in 2090 – a 7-fold increase.
“Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is a direct threat to public health.”
Dr. Andrea Pozzer.
Air pollution
Airborne particles and gases that can harm health, ecosystems, and the climate. Common sources include vehicle emissions, industrial processes, and natural events like wildfires.
Extreme temperatures
Abnormally high or low temperature events relative to historical averages, which can cause heatstroke, hypothermia, and exacerbate existing health conditions.
Numerical simulations
Computational models that use algorithms to predict future trends based on current data and established scientific principles.
Regional variations in health risks
The study highlights stark differences in how regions may experience these changes. South and East Asia are expected to face the highest increases in mortality rates, exacerbated by aging populations. In these areas, air pollution remains a critical driver of health risks. Conversely, high-income regions such as Western Europe, North America, Australasia and parts of the Asia Pacific will likely see temperature-related deaths surpass those caused by air pollution. This shift is already evident in some countries, including the United States, France and Japan, and is expected to spread to Central and Eastern Europe as well as parts of South America.
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Subscribe for FREEBy the late 21st century, one in five people globally could face higher mortality risks from extreme temperatures than from air pollution, emphasizing the critical need for focused public health interventions.
Implications for public health policies
The findings underscore the necessity of addressing both climate change and air quality through integrated strategies. As temperature-related health risks outpace those from pollution in many regions, climate adaptation measures must be prioritized alongside efforts to curb emissions. Such dual-focused approaches could mitigate the projected impacts on human health.
“These findings highlight the critical importance of implementing decisive mitigation measures now to prevent future loss of life”
Dr. Jean Sciare
Reference: Pozzer A, Steffens B, Proestos Y, et al. Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution. Nat Commun. 2024;15(1):9379. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53649-9
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