Climate Change Could Decimate 68% of Temperate Rainforests by 2100

Climate change could lead to the decline of up to two-thirds of the world's temperate rainforests by the century’s end, according to a recent study from the University of Leeds.

First global analysis reveals extent of impact

Researchers conducted the first comprehensive assessment of how climate change threatens these ecologically rich yet vulnerable forests. By analyzing tree cover, forest conditions and global climate data, they quantified the human and climatic pressures on temperate rainforests and mapped out their future under various climate scenarios.

Under a “worst-case” projection, where no significant reductions in fossil fuel emissions are achieved, the study found that 68% of these forests could be lost by 2100. In specific regions, the losses could reach as high as 90%.

“Unmitigated climate change is a disaster for temperate rainforest in the UK and globally, as they cannot survive the kinds of high summer temperatures which we are starting to observe more regularly and are only predicted to worsen in future climate change simulations."

Dr. Ben Si;

Forest loss projections under different scenarios

Current policies aimed at reducing fossil fuel emissions suggest that 23% of global temperate rainforests could be lost. However, if fossil fuel emissions were halted rapidly, the loss could be minimized to 9%. This finding underscores the urgent need for stronger climate action to preserve these unique ecosystems.

Temperate rainforests, typically found in cool, humid climates, span parts of Canada, the United States, Chile, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. These forests occupy less than 1% of the planet’s land area yet are recognized for their significant ecological roles and high carbon storage capacities. Intact temperate rainforests have been shown to store more carbon per unit area than forests located at other latitudes.

Temperate rainforest loss and conservation in the UK

In the UK, temperate rainforests are located in regions like western Scotland, north and west Wales, Devon, Cornwall, Cumbria and parts of Northern Ireland. The Woodland Trust and other conservation groups identify these forests as priorities for restoration due to their high biodiversity, including species of moisture-loving lichens, mosses, and liverworts that thrive in the region's consistent humidity and low temperature ranges.

The research highlights that the UK may offer unique restoration opportunities, with an estimated quarter of the world’s remaining temperate rainforest climate zone located in Britain. This finding suggests that the UK’s temperate rainforests may withstand low and moderate future warming scenarios better than other global regions.

Restoration potential and climate action

The study emphasizes that there is still time to reduce climate impact on temperate rainforests through concerted global efforts to cut emissions. The researchers identified regions with the highest vulnerability as well as those that may serve as refuges, helping to guide targeted conservation and restoration efforts.

“All the world’s rainforests are the ‘lungs of the planet’ that must be protected and restored as natural climate solutions to avoid the worst of global overheating. Temperate rainforests need to take their place alongside tropical rainforests and the boreal forests of the north as strategically vital to a safe climate.”

Dr. Dominick A. DellaSala

Reference: Silver B, Spracklen DV, DellaSala DA, Smith C. Large reductions in temperate rainforest biome due to unmitigated climate change. Earth’s Future. 2024;12(11):e2024EF004812. doi: 10.1029/2024EF004812

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