Healthy Diets Could Help Keep Global Warming to 1.5 °C

Up to now, existing literature did not allow to single-out the contribution of dietary shifts alone for the feasibility of the 1.5°C limit. In the new study, PIK scientists investigated how dietary shifts would contribute towards the feasibility of 1.5°C transformation pathways relative to a scenario without dietary shifts.

The researchers used the open-source Integrated Assessment Modelling framework REMIND-MAgPIE to simulate 1.5°C pathways, one including dietary shifts towards the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet by 2050 in all world regions. "The EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet is a flexitarian diet predominantly featuring a wide variety of plant-based foods, a marked reduction of livestock products especially in high- and middle-income regions, and restricted intake of added sugars, among other things,” says co-author Isabelle Weindl from PIK.

However, considerable challenges are yet to be addressed: Decision-making in food policy is often dispersed across different institutions and ministries, which hinders the implementation of coherent policies in support of healthy diets. Moreover, social inclusion and compensation schemes are central for a just transition to healthy diets, the authors state.

"The results indicate that a shift in our diets could make a considerable difference if we do not want to crash through the 1.5°C limit in the next 10 to 15 years. This calls for globally concerted efforts to support the transition towards sustainable healthy diets,” concludes Johan Rockström, PIK director and co-author of the study.

Reference: Humpenöder F, Popp A, Merfort L, et al. Food matters: Dietary shifts increase the feasibility of 1.5°C pathways in line with the Paris Agreement. Sci Adv. 2024;10(13):eadj3832. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adj3832

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