Life Expectancy Growth Has Slowed Across Europe

A new study by University of East Anglia researchers demonstrates the slowing trajectory of increased human life expectancy across Europe since 2011.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic contributes to this plateau, factors such as obesity, physical inactivity and the type of food we consume contributed to this decline well before. The study was published in The Lancet Public Health.  

Increases in life expectancy have stalled

Today's population looks forward to living longer than our parents and grandparents, but we may find that we are dying sooner.

“Advances in public health and medicine in the 20th Century meant that life expectancy in Europe improved year after year. But this is no longer the case,” said lead author Professor Nicholas Steel, from UEA’s Norwich Medical School.

“From 1990 to 2011, reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases and cancers continued to lead to substantial improvements in life expectancy. But decades of steady improvements finally slowed around 2011, with marked international differences,” he added.

The study sought to investigate the slowdown in life expectancy improvements across Europe since 2011, with a particular focus on the UK. Its goal was to identify key contributing factors – such as obesity, poor diet, and physical inactivity – while highlighting the urgent need for governments to invest in bold public health initiatives and preventive measures to mitigate major health risks and enhance long-term population health.

Cardiovascular disease is driving life expectancy reduction

Steel and colleagues examined data from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2021. Drawing on the work of ~12,000 collaborators across >160 countries and territories, they performed the largest and most comprehensive research quantifying health loss across places and over time.

Changes in life expectancy, causes of death and population exposure to risk factors across Europe were compared between 1990–2011, 2011–2019 and 2019–2021.

England exhibited the largest plateau in life expectancy out of all the countries studied.

“We found that deaths from cardiovascular diseases were the primary driver of the reduction in life expectancy improvements between 2011–19. Unsurprisingly, the COVID pandemic was responsible for decreases in life expectancy seen between 2019–21,” Steel explained.

“After 2011, major risks such as obesity, high blood pressure and high cholesterol either increased or stopped improving in almost all countries. Better cholesterol and blood pressure treatments have not been enough to offset the harms from obesity and poor diets,” he added.

All hope is not lost

Despite the downturn, the team says we still haven’t reached a biological ceiling for longevity, with life expectancy among older adults continuing to rise in many countries.

By comparing national policies across countries, the research revealed that national policies focused on improving public health are closely linked to greater resilience against future health crises.

“Countries like Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark and Belgium held onto better life expectancy after 2011 and saw reduced harms from major risks for heart disease, helped by government policies. In contrast, England and the other UK nations fared worst after 2011 and also during the COVID pandemic and experienced some of the highest risks for heart disease and cancer, including poor diets,” said Steel.

Sarah Price, NHS England's national director of public health, emphasized the importance of the study, stating it “reinforces that prevention is the cornerstone of a healthier society, and is exactly why it will be such a key part of the 10-Year Health Plan which we are working with Government on.”

Professor John Newton, from the European Centre for Environment and Human Health at the University of Exeter, said: “These results are a cause for concern especially here in the UK, but also [offer] some hope. We should be concerned because many European countries including the UK are showing such poor progress but I’m hopeful because addressing the underlying causes of major illnesses appears to be effective if only improvements in the key risks can be sustained.”

Despite feelings of hope, the research team emphasizes that extending longevity requires a strong commitment to healthier lifestyles from an early age, such as maintaining a balanced diet, staying physically active, managing stress and avoiding harmful habits. Additionally, they call on governments to take decisive action by investing in ambitious public health initiatives. These efforts could include promoting nutrition education, improving access to healthcare and implementing policies that encourage wellness and disease prevention on a societal level.

Reference: Steel N, Bauer-Staeb CMM, Ford JA, et al. Changing life expectancy in European countries 1990–2021: a subanalysis of causes and risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Public Health. 2025. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(25)00009-X

This article is a rework of a press release issued by the University of East Anglia. Material has been edited for length and content.