Mountainous Forests in the Americas Are Adapting to Climate Change Better Than Lowland Forests

Tropical rainforests play a vital role in global climate regulation and biodiversity conservation. However, a major new study led by Dr. Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute (ECI), reveals that forests across the Americas are not adapting quickly enough to keep pace with climate change, raising concerns about their long-term resilience. 

The research involved over 100 scientists and local partners analysing data from 415 permanent forest plots spanning Mexico to southern Brazil. By examining the traits of more than 250,000 trees, the team assessed how different species are responding to shifting temperatures and rainfall patterns. 

Tropical forests are among the most diverse ecosystems on Earth, yet their ability to adapt to climate change is limited.... If we know what species of trees are doing better or worse, and what set of traits they have, then we know what they can withstand. It will help inform what conservation actions should be encouraged and where funding should be allocated.

Key Findings: 

• Forest adaptation is lagging: While climate change is altering temperature and precipitation patterns, tree communities are changing too slowly to remain in equilibrium with their environment. 

• Survival strategies vary: Some tree species are thriving while others struggle. Traits such as being deciduous, wood density, leaf thickness, and drought tolerance influence a tree’s ability to survive in a changing climate. 

• Elevation matters: Mountainous forests show more rapid adaptation than lowland forests, likely due to greater climate variability. 

• Recruitment differences: Younger trees (recruits) show the most noticeable shifts in traits, yet the overall forest composition remains largely unchanged. 

• Future risks: By 2100, temperatures in the region could rise by up to 4°C, with rainfall decreasing by as much as 20%. This could push tropical forests further out of balance, making them more vulnerable to extreme climate events. 

Dr. Aguirre-Gutiérrez explained: 'Tropical forests are among the most diverse ecosystems on Earth, yet their ability to adapt to climate change is limited. Understanding which traits help trees survive can guide conservation efforts and policy decisions. Given the changes in climate we have observed over the last 40 to 50 years, you might think there have also been lots of changes in the tree communities in tropical rainforests. But some of these changes are too small and too slow to actually adapt to the observed changes in climate.

"By looking at individual trees from different communities, we found some have suffered due to climate shifts, while others have thrived. We can study the characteristics, also known as 'tree traits', of those that have survived, as well as new individuals joining the communities and those that have died, to understand what makes them react differently to a changing climate."

He added: "If we know what species of trees are doing better or worse, and what set of traits they have, then we know what they can withstand. It will help inform what conservation actions should be encouraged and where funding should be allocated."

The study highlights the urgent need for further research and conservation strategies to support the resilience of these critical ecosystems. 

Reference: Aguirre-Gutiérrez J, et al. Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change. Science. 2025. doi:10.1126/science.adl5414

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