Banking Data Reveals Early Warning Signs of Cognitive Decline

A recent study has shown that common financial behaviors, captured through routine banking data, can serve as early indicators of cognitive decline in older adults, up to a decade before formal diagnosis. Published in Journal of the American Medical Association Network Open, the research was led by Professor John Gathergood from the University of Nottingham's School of Economics and David Leake at Lloyds Banking Group.

Study details and methodology

The study analyzed anonymized banking records from over 66,000 individuals, comparing 16,742 individuals who had registered for power of attorney (PoA) due to a loss of financial capacity with a control group of 50,226 individuals who had no reported capacity loss. The analysis focused on identifying subtle changes in financial behavior that occurred years before the formal recognition of diminished financial capacity.

Key findings

The results revealed several early behavioral changes, including:

• A significant reduction in spending on travel and hobbies (9.6 percentage points less likely to spend on travel five years prior to PoA registration and 7.9 points less likely to spend on hobbies like gardening).
• A decline in the frequency of online banking logins (1.0 fewer logins per month).
• An increase in requests for PIN resets and reports of lost cards, indicating vulnerability to financial errors and potential fraud.

These patterns highlight the potential of banking data as an early detection tool for cognitive decline, particularly in cases of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Early-stage cognitive decline often leads to decreased engagement in out-of-home activities, such as travel and hobbies, and an increase in home-based spending, all of which were captured in the banking records.

Implications for further research

The research team has suggested that integrating financial data with health and social care systems could help in the early identification of individuals at risk of cognitive decline, but it stresses the need for strict data privacy measures. The findings also call attention to the importance of public awareness around the registration for PoA, which remains low in the UK despite growing concerns about dementia-related financial harm.

Professor Gathergood emphasized the importance of early intervention, stating that understanding the behavioral markers of declining financial capacity could help banks enhance safeguards for vulnerable customers.

The study advocates for further research to explore the integration of financial data with healthcare to create comprehensive support mechanisms for those at risk of cognitive decline.

Reference: Trendl A, Anwyl-Irvine A, Vomfell L, et al. Banking data reveals early warning signs of cognitive decline in older adults. JAMA Netw Open. 2025. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen

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