Marine Heatwaves Push Coral Reefs Toward Local Extinction
Coral adaptation cannot outpace climate change without rapid, significant emissions reductions, researchers warn.
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Coral reefs face unprecedented challenges from rising global temperatures, with adaptation potentially unable to keep pace without immediate and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new study. Researchers from The University of Queensland and Newcastle University modeled coral responses to varying climate scenarios, emphasizing the urgency of achieving international climate goals.
Modeling coral survival under different warming scenarios
The team developed an eco-evolutionary simulation model using data from corals in Palau, located in the western Pacific Ocean. Their analysis focused on the Acropora genus, a thermally sensitive yet ecologically critical coral group. The model incorporated findings on corals' thermal tolerance and adaptive capacity to predict their population trajectories under different climate outcomes.
Acropora genus
A group of branching corals widely distributed in tropical reefs. These corals are important for reef building but are highly sensitive to thermal stress, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change.Eco-evolutionary simulation model
A computational tool used to predict changes in ecosystems and populations over time by integrating ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes.Marine heatwaves
Prolonged periods of unusually high ocean temperatures that can disrupt marine ecosystems and lead to events like coral bleaching.The researchers found that under moderate emissions scenarios – aligned with current climate policies projecting a global temperature rise of 3°C – natural adaptation may allow some coral populations to survive. However, significant declines in reef health and a high risk of local extinction for heat-sensitive species are expected.
The limits of natural selection
The study indicates that while natural selection could improve coral heat tolerance under stringent global emissions reductions, this may not suffice in a high-warming future. Marine heatwaves, already intensifying due to climate change, are causing mass bleaching events that severely damage coral ecosystems.
“The reality is that marine heatwaves are triggering mass coral bleaching mortality events across the world’s shallow tropical reefs, and the increasing frequency and intensity of these events is ramping up under climate change.”
Professor Peter Mumby
Integrating adaptation and management strategies
Beyond natural adaptation, the researchers highlighted the potential for targeted interventions to enhance coral survival. Strategies like selectively breeding heat-tolerant corals and planting them in vulnerable areas could complement natural selection. However, these methods remain experimental, requiring further research to determine their feasibility and impact.
Climate-smart management, which focuses on maximizing genetic adaptation and exploring innovative interventions, is critical to sustaining coral ecosystems. The study underscores the importance of aggressive global emissions reductions as a cornerstone of any long-term strategy to protect coral reefs.
Reference: Lachs L, Bozec YM, Bythell JC, et al. Natural selection could determine whether Acropora corals persist under expected climate change. Science. 2024:eadl6480. doi: 10.1126/science.adl6480
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